桥水基金创始人达里奥于11月底接受彭博社“Masters in Business”节目的专访，期间谈到了他11月份出版的新书《Big Debt Crises》，关于债务危机的结构性相似性。

　　历史已经证明，同样的事情在相同的因果关系中一再发生。中美贸易战从“修昔底德陷阱”的角度，好像是必然会发生的。

　　世界正处在一个去全球化和自给自足的过程中。达里奥认为，他并不担心中国，认为中国是长期投资的好地方。

　　以下为采访为文字节选：

　　修昔底德陷阱：中美贸易战好像是必然会发生的

　　主持人：考虑到这些事情是周期性的，它们会重复，看起来非常相似——你会从历史和今天看到什么平行之处?今天最让你想起的是哪个时代?当前最有趣的方面是什么?

　　达里奥：最近一个类似的时期是30年代末。举1937年为例。我为什么这么说呢?

　　与当时类似，由于印钞和技术等原因，我们的政治两极分化更加严重。我认为这是一个非常重要的问题。政治上的两极分化导致了世界各地的民粹主义。换句话说，当个人拥有极端权力，就控制了这种情况。以“民粹主义”这个词为例，在发达国家并不广泛使用，直到你回到30年代，或者直到最近——当然，现在也很常见。

　　还有一个情况，我认为非常相似，那就是我们有一个正在崛起的力量，那就是中国。

　　DALIO: Well, the most recent period that’s analogous of this is the late ’30s. Let’s say, if you take 1937. So why do I say that?

　　Similar to then, we have, because of the printing of money and because technologies and other reasons, we have a greater amount of polarity, political polarity. I think this is an important, important issue. And that political polarity causes Populism around the world. In other words, a strong individual to come in and get control of that situation, while they’re having that type of polarity — so the word “Populism” for example, in developed countries was not widely used until — you go back to the ’30s, until more recently — now it’s, of course, common.

　　Then also we have a situation, which is quite similar, I think, in we have a rising power in the form of China.

　　主持人：因为在30年代，意大利、日本和德国都在崛起，挑战现有的大国——如今不断发展的中国与那个时代有多相似?

　　达里奥：我认为这不仅与那个时代类似，而且还有一个概念，叫做“修昔底德陷阱”。

　　DALIO: I think it’s not only analogous to that era, but there’s a concept — called “The Thucydides Trap” by the way.

　　（编者注：“修昔底德陷阱”，是指一个新崛起的大国必然要挑战现存大国，而现存大国也必然会回应这种威胁，这样战争变得不可避免。）

　　达里奥：我现在已经非常非常仔细地研究了过去500年的历史——你会发现，在过去500年里，有16次，一个正在崛起的大国来挑战一个现存的大国。就像你说的，德国在欧洲，日本在亚洲。这是野兽的本性。这意味着肯定存在竞争。因此，一场贸易战—一股制造问题的实力相当的力量。

　　DALIO: I’ve made a point now to study history of the last 500 years very, very carefully — what you see is that in the last 500 years there have been 16 times where a power comes to challenge an existing power, a rising power. So like you say in Germany, within Europe or Japan within Asia, that was the nature of that beast. That means that there’s certainly rivalry. So a trade war — a comparable power that creates an issue.

　　达里奥：我不是说我们要打一场枪战。但我要说的是，历史表明，战争结束后会有一个和平时期，因为有一个主导力量。二战后，美国不仅在经济上强大，而且垄断了核能。

　　因此，由于这种权力，联合国在纽约，世界银行和国际货币基金组织在华盛顿。历史上看，崛起的力量挑战现存的力量，就产生了冲突。我们正在步入一个新时代，任何人读历史和世界各地的决策者认识到这一点，这个问题与中国的上升意味着自然会有冲突，如何解决冲突的世界市场。DALIO: I’m not saying we’re going to get into a shooting war. But I am saying that — the history that has shown that when you have wars, after a war you have a dominant power and you have periods of peace — because you have a dominant power. After World War II the United States was powerful, both economically and also it had a monopoly on nuclear power.

　　And so as a result of that power, you know, the United Nations is in New York, the World Bank and the IMF are in Washington, D.C. because it determined that. And in history, then when you have the rising power, to challenge the existing power, you have elements of conflict. I’m saying, I don’t want to overdo this, but I am saying that we are entering an era in which anybody who reads history and policy-makers around the world recognize this — that this issue with China rising means that there are naturally going to be conflicts and how do you resolve conflicts in a world market?

　　去全球化和自给自足

Tags：中美贸易战(236)空姐日记(1)

转载请标注：信息网——达里奥最新采访：中美贸易战必然发生 全球进入独立自主时代